Ronald Howard's Publications

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Professor
Management Science and Engineering and, by courtesy, Professor, Graduate School of Business Director, Decisions and Ethics Center

Office: Huang Engineering Center 325
Phone: 650.723.4176
Fax: 650.723.1614
Email: rhoward @ stanford.edu

 

BOOKS

  1. Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, Technology Press-Wiley, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1960.

  2. Dynamic Probabilistic Systems (two volumes), John F. Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York City, 1971. 

  3. READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, (Volumes I and II), Eds. Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, 1984.

  4. Decision Analysis, (manuscript in process), 1996.

  5. Dynamic Probabilistic Systems, Volume I: Markov Models, 608 p., reprinted by Dover Publications (June 5, 2007).

  6. Dynamic Probabilistic Systems, Volume II: Semi-Markov and Decision Processes, 576 p., reprinted by Dover Publications (June 5, 2007).

  7. Ethics for the Real World: Creating a Personal Code to Guide Decisions in Work and Life, Ronald A. Howard and Clinton D. Korver, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, 2008.

  8. Readings in decision analysis, Ronald A. Howard, James E. Matheson, and Katherine L. Miller Decision Analysis Group, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, 1976.

PAPERS

  1. "Control Processes", Notes on Operations Research, Technology Press, 1959.

  2. "Sequential Decision Processes", with G.E. Kimball, Notes on Operations Research, Technology Press, 1959. 

  3. "Brand Switching-Key to Marketing Decisions", with J.D. Herniter, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Technical Report, 1961. 

  4. "Systems Control through Discrete Dynamic Programming", Proceedings Dynamic Programming Workshop, pp. 189-203, Joint Automatic Control Conference, Boulder, Colorado, June 1961. 

  5. "Mathematical Programming in Systems Engineering" , IRE Transactions on Education, Vol. E-5, pp. 78-81, June 1962. 

  6. "Lineargraph (Flowgraph) and Its Applications", Keiei Kagaku, Vol. 6, pp. 45-53, October 1962.

  7. Commentary on "Industrial Dynamics", Management and the Computer of the Future, MIT Press and John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1962.

  8. "The Used Car Buyer", Private Report, 1962.

    Readings in Decision Analysis, Part III, pp. 491-520, Decision Analysis Group, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California, Second Edition, 1976.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  9. "Systems Analysis of Linear Models", Multistage Inventory Models and Techniques, Eds., Scarf, Shelley, Guilford, pp. 143-184, Stanford University Press, 1963.

  10. "Semi-Markovian Decision Processes", Proceedings 34th Session International Statistical Institute, pp. 625-652, Ottawa, Canada, August 1963. 

  11. "Prediction of Replacement Demand", Proceedings 3rd International Conference Operations Research, Oslo, Dunod, Paris, 1963.

  12. "On Methods: Stochastic Process Models of Consumer Behavior", Journal of Advertising Research, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 35-42, September 1963.

  13. "The Science of Decision Making", Private Report, 1964.

    Readings in Decision Analysis, Part I, pp. 149-164, Decision Analysis Group, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California, Second Edition, 1976.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  14. "Probabilistic Consumer Models", Arthur D. Little, Inc., Technical Report, 1964.

  15. "Systems Analysis of Semi-Markov Processes" , Transactions IEEE Prof. Group on Mil. Elec., Vol. MIL-8, No. 2, pp. 114-124, April 1964. 

  16. "Stochastic Marketing Models", with J.D. Herniter, Progress in Operations Research, ed., Hertz, pp. 33-96, John F. Wiley & Sons, 1964.

    Reprinted in Marketing Models, Quantitative Applications, eds. Day and Parsons, pp. 104-117, Intext Educational Publishers, 1971.

  17. "Research in Semi-Markovian Decision Structures", Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, Vol. 6, pp. 169-199, 1964.

  18. "Probability", Systems Engineering Handbook, ed. Machol, McGraw-Hill, 1965.

  19. "Dynamic Inference", Journal of the Operations Research Society of America, Vol. 13, No. 5, pp. 712- 733, September-October 1965.

    Reprinted in Marketing Models, Quantitative Applications, eds. Day and Parsons, pp. 221-243, Intext Educational Publishers, 1971.

  20. "Bayesian Decision Models for Systems Engineering", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Science and Cybernetics, Vol. SSC-1, No. 1, November 1965.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  21. "Dynamic Inference Decision Processes", Recent Advances in Optimization Techniques, ed. Lavi and Vogl, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1966.

  22. "Dynamic Programming", Management Science, Vol. 12, No. 5, pp. 317-348, January 1966.

    Reprinted in Managerial Economics, ed. G.P.E. Clarkson, pp. 372-414, Penguin Modern Economics X57.

    Reprinted in Readings in Management Science/Operations Research, eds. N.P. Loomba and E. Turban, Business Publications, Inc., 1976.

  23. "Information Value Theory", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Science and Cybernetics, pp. 22-26, Vol. SSC-2, No. 1, August 1966.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  24. "Decision Analysis: Applied Decision Theory", Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Operational Research, pp. 55-71, Wiley-Interscience, 1966.

    Reprinted in Management Decisions for Production Operations, Robert Goodell Brown, pp. 513-533, The Dryden Press, Inc., 1971.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  25. "Value of Information Lotteries", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Science and Cybernetics, Vol. SSC-3, No. 1, pp. 54-60, June 1967.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  26. "Power of Pricing Mechanisms", Management Science, "Free for All" Section, Vol. 13, No. 10, June 1967. 

  27. "Stochastic Models of Consumer Behavior", Applications of the Sciences in Marketing Management, eds. Frank M. Bass, Charles W. King, and Edgar A. Pessemier, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1968.

  28. "The Practicality Gap", Management Science, Vol. 14, No. 7, pp. 503-507, March 1968.

  29. "The Foundations of Decision Analysis", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Science and Cybernetics, Vol. SSC-4, No. 3, pp. 211-219, September 1968.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  30. "Risk Preference", Private Report, 1968.

    Readings in Decision Analysis, Part III, pp. 426-429, Decision Analysis Group, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California, Second Edition, 1976.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  31. "Decision Analysis: Perspectives on Inference, Decision and Experimentation", IEEE Special Issue, Detection Theory and Applications, pp. 632-643, May 1970.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  32. Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Operational Research, Venice, 1969, Part II, "Decision Analysis", organized by Ronald A. Howard, "Introduction", pp. 625, Tavistock Publications, London, 1970.

  33. "Management Science Education: Nature and Nurture", Management Science, Application, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. B 23-24, October 1970.

  34. "Proximal Decision Analysis", Management Science, Theory, Vol. 17, No. 9, pp. 507-541, May 1971.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  35. "Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes", Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Management Science, Theory, Vol. 18, No. 7, pp. 356-369, March 1972.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  36. "The Decision to Seed Hurricanes", Ronald A. Howard, J.E. Matheson, D.W. North, Science, Vol. 176, No. 4040, pp. 1191-1201, June 16, 1972.

    Reprinted in Managerial Economics and Operations Research, 3rd Edition, by Edwin Mansfield, W.W. Norton & Co., Inc., 1975.

    Reprinted in Concepts and Applications of Modern Decision Models, V.M. Rao Tummala, Richard C. Henshaw, Business Studies Series, 1976.

    Reprinted in Management Science/Operations Research, James S. Dyer and Elwood Buffa, Wiley-Hamilton, 1976.

    Reprinted in Modern Decision Analysis, Selected Readings, Eds. Gordon M. Kaufman, and Howard Thomas, Penguin Books, Ltd., Harmondsworth, Middlesex, England, Richard Clay, Ltd., (The Chaucer Press), 1977.

    Reprinted in Statistics and Public Policy, Ed. William B. Fairley and Frederick Mosteller, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1977.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  37. "Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering", Systems Concepts: Lectures on Contemporary Approaches to Systems, Ed. Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Chapter 4, pp. 51-85, Wiley-Interscience, May 1973.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  38. "Social Decision Analysis", Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 63, No. 3, pp. 359-371, March 3, 1975.

    Reprinted in Modern Decision Analysis, Selected Readings, Eds. Gordon M. Kaufman, and Howard Thomas, Penguin Books, Ltd., Harmondsworth, Middlesex, England, Richard Clay, Ltd., (The Chaucer Press), 1977.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  39. Chapter on "Baseball a la Russe", Optimal Strategies in Sports, Eds. Shaul P. Ladany and Robert E. Machol, pp. 89-93, North-Holland Publishings Co., New York, 1977.

  40. "The Value of Life and Nuclear Design", Ronald A. Howard, James E. Matheson, Daniel L. Owen, Proceedings of the American Nuclear Society Conference on Probabilistic Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Safety, Los Angeles, May 1978.

  41. "Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes", Dynamic Programming and Its Applications, Ed. Martin L. Puterman, Academic Press, Inc., 1978.

  42. "Life and Death Decision Analysis", Proceedings Second Lawrence Symposium on Systems and Decision Sciences, Berkeley, California, October 1978.

  43. "An Assessment of Decision Analysis", Special Issue on Decision Analysis, Operations Research, Vol. 28, No. 1, January-February 1980, pp 4-27.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  44. "Life and Death Decision Analysis", Research Report EES DA-79-2, Department of Engineering-Economic Systems, Stanford University, December 1979.

  45. "On Making Life and Death Decisions", Societal Risk Assessment, How Safe Is Safe Enough?, Eds. Richard C. Schwing and Walter A. Albers, Jr., General Motors Research Laboratories, Plenum Press, 1980.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  46. "Influence Diagrams", Private Report, 1980.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  47. "Alternatives to Federal Management of Public Lands", by Richard R. Forberg, Ronald A. Howard, and Gerald L. Sauer, Proceedings of the National Conference on States' Rights, The Sagebrush Rebellion, and Federal Land Policy, Salt Lake City, November 1980. (L.A.S.E.R.-League for the Advancement of States' Equal Rights).

  48. "The Risks of Benefit-Cost-Risk Analysis", Risk/Benefit Analysis in Water Resources Planning and Management, Ed. Yacov Y. Haimes, Plenum Press, New York, 1981.

  49. "Decision Analysis for Forest Product Tactical and Strategic Decisions", Forest-to-Mill, Challenges of the Future, pp. 97-101, Weyerhaeuser Science Symposium, 1981.

  50. "On Fates Comparable to Death", Special Issue of Management Science, April 1984.

    READINGS on The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, Edited by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, April 1984.

  51. "The Evolution of Decision Analysis", READINGS on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, pp. 7-16, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California, 1984. 

  52. "Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise", Management Science, Vol. 34, No. 6, pp. 679-695, June 1988.

  53. "Uncertainty About Probability: A Decision Analysis Perspective", Risk Analysis, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 91-98, 1988.

  54. "Knowledge Maps", Management Science, Vol. 35, No. 8, pp. 903-922, August 1989.

  55. "Microrisks for Medical Decision Analysis", International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 357-370, 1989.

  56. "From Influence to Relevance to Knowledge", Influence Diagrams, Belief Nets and Decision Analysis, pp. 3-23, Eds. R.M. Oliver and J.Q. Smith, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 1990.

  57. "Business Ethics: Tell the Truth", Journal of Management Development, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 4-10, 1992.

  58. "In Praise of the Old Time Religion", Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications, pp. 27-55, Ed. W. Edwards, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992.

  59. "Heathens, Heretics and Cults: The Religious Spectrum of Decision Aiding", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 15-27, 1992.

  60. "Options", in Wise Choices: Decisions ,Games and Negotiations. Editors: Zeckhauser, Richard J., Keeney, Ralph L. and Sebenius, James K. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1996.

  61. "Life and Death Decisions for Individuals and Couples", in Decision Science and Technology: Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards. Editors: Shanteau, J., Mellers, B., and Schum, D. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999.

  62. "Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty", in Visions of Risk. Edited by Alexander, C. London: Pearson Education Limited, 2000.

  63. "Decision Analysis and Law", Cardozo Law Review, Vol. 22, Nos. 5-6, pp. 1595-1603, July, 2001.

  64. "The Ethical OR/MS Professional", INTERFACES, Vol. 31, No. 6, November-December 2001, pp.69-82.

  65. "Comments on the Origin and Application of Markov Decision Processes", Operations Research, Vol. 50, No. 1, January-February 2002, pp. 100-102.

  66. "Speaking of Decisions: Precise Decision Language", Decision Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2004, pp. 71-78.

  67. "An Appreciation of Ed Jaynes", Proceedings of the Twenty Fifth International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering. AIP Conference Proceedings 803, pp 53-66, San Jose, CA., 2005.

  68. "Influence Diagrams", Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Decision Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 3, September 2005, pp 127-143.

  69. "Influence Diagram Retrospective", Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, Decision Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 3, September 2005, pp 144-147.

  70. "Attribute Dominance Utility", Ali E. Abbas and Ronald A. Howard, Decision Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 4, December 2005, pp. 185-206.

  71. "Comment on Influence Diagram Retrospective", Ronald A. Howard, James E. Matheson, Miley W. (Lee) Merkhofer, Allen C. Miller, D. Warner North, Decision Analysis, Vol. 3, No. 2, June 2006, pp. 117-119.

  72. "The Foundations of Decision Analysis Revisited", in Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications, Editors: Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., and Detlof von Winterfeldt. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

  73. "Teaching Decision Skills to Troubled Teens", Ali Abbas, Nathan Hoffmann, Ronald Howard and Chris Spetzler, ORMS Today, 34(4), August 2007.

  74. "Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program", David J. Caswell, Ronald A. Howard, M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Decision Analysis, Vol. 8, No. 1, March 2011, pp.30-45.